Battle still continue: US poll is near
In Battleground Virginia, Kaine May Give
Democrats an Edge
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| Source: wtvr.com |
Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine's name on the Democratic ticket can realistically
nudge this pivotal state closer into Hillary Clinton's column — no small feat
in a contest of two presidential nominees that engender strong feelings by
themselves.
Kaine's rise through Richmond city politics and tenure in state
government gives the party disproportionate pull, specifically in the
politically dynamic capital city metro area.
And while Clinton's aides try to downplay his potential impact
on the must-win state, strategists in both parties say Kaine can put Virginia
out of Republican Donald Trump's reach in the race for 270 Electoral College
votes.
"Tim Kaine is an example of putting someone on the ticket that will
impact their home state," Virginia Republican strategist Chris Jankowski
said. "Putting him on the ticket turns Virginia from a true, toss-up state
to one that leans Democratic."
The vice presidential nomination hasn't made the difference in
the election outcome in decades. But Virginia has become one of the most
competitive states over the past four elections after 30 years as reliably
Republican.
In Virginia, Clinton leads Trump in polls of likely voters, more
narrowly than in polls that also ask about Libertarian Party candidate Gary
Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. But Kaine provides the Democrats
a familiar name and, to many, a familiar face with appeal in swing-voting and
GOP-leaning regions.
Kaine's support for some abortion restrictions gave him the
reputation as a moderate, which helped him outperform President Barack Obama in
their respective races in swing-voting suburbs of northern Virginia in 2012. At
the same time, leaders in both parties say Kaine's pursuit of gun restrictions
after the April 2007 killings at Virginia Tech University helps him with the
state's growing number of suburban parents.
Kaine signed an executive order requiring those involuntarily
committed to mental health institutions be reported to the National Instant
Criminal Background Check System, action President George W. Bush required of
all states later that year.
But Kaine's biggest potential benefit to the ticket is in
central Virginia, in the counties surrounding his longtime home in Richmond.
Kaine has been a fixture in a metro area that accounts for 10
percent of Virginia's voting population, including heavily Democratic Richmond.
He's lived in the same north Richmond neighborhood for more than 20 years,
attends the same downtown church and is a regular for breakfast at City Diner
just west of downtown.
"He's a regular guy. He lives in a regular neighborhood and
relates to regular people," Sandra Hansboro, a Democrat from nearby
Midlothian, said.
His regular guy image quickly picked up
steam after his speech at last week's Democratic National Convention, when Twitter jokes depicting Kaine
as an average American dad quickly went viral.
But it's this doughnut around Richmond —- politically and
culturally diverse Henrico County to the north, east and west, and whiter,
GOP-leaning Chesterfield, to the south and west — where Kaine's potential
impact on the presidential ticket can really be seen.
These renovated urban, neatly trimmed suburban and developing
rural tracts of the Old South are now a cross section of emerging Virginia
where Kaine's non-ideological approach has shadowed the state's Democratic
migration.
"It's a microcosm of the state. And it's gone from a light
shade of red, to a light shade of blue." McEachin said, characterizing the
Richmond suburbs in color-coded partisan terms.
George W. Bush carried Virginia twice by less than 10 percentage
points, while Obama has also carried it twice, though by smaller margins.
The proof of Kaine's help to Clinton will be in how he can
narrow the Republican advantage in Chesterfield County, similar in population
size to Henrico, but less urban and with a more Republican hue.
Golf courses, higher-end suburbs and retail developments now
mark Chesterfield County, a landscape once known for the coal and tobacco it
shipped out of the confluence of the James and Appomattox rivers.
Although Kaine has never carried the county, he has dramatically
outperformed most Democrats. In 2012, he received 3,500 more votes there than
Obama did. And he trimmed the GOP edge to a few percentage points in 2005 and
2012 in a county George W. Bush won twice by nearly two-to-one.
"Chesterfield is the county to watch," former longtime
Republican state Sen. John Watkins. "If Kaine can help shave Trump's
margin to less than 10 percentage points, Clinton will win Virginia."
Trump has said his appeal to white, working-class voters can put
long-held Democratic states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania into contention
this fall. But he also needs to win back territory gained by Democrats in
recent elections, such as Virginia and North Carolina.
"There's no question Virginia
will be motivated in a way they otherwise wouldn't be," Virginia Republican Party Chairman
John Whitbeck said. "Tim Kaine will motivate Virginia Democrats more than
Hillary Clinton would."
Even a small uptick in voter turnout, which Clinton's campaign
aides say Kaine can provide, could make the difference in a close election,
according to strategists on either side of the partisan divide.
If Kaine can spur turnout in metropolitan Richmond, "we
could add a point or two," Clinton's Virginia director Brian Zuzenak said.
Kaine accepted the Democratic vice presidential nomination
Tuesday at the party's national convention in Philadelphia. He is scheduled to
headline a homecoming rally in Richmond Monday.
"He's a benefit to us on the ticket," Zuzenak said.
"In a battleground state like Virginia, it's all about the margins."
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