US election poll tracker: Who is ahead - Clinton or Trump?

Americans will vote on 8 November to choose their next president.
The numbers have begun to tighten as we approach election day amid crises affecting both Democratic contender Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump.
Use our tracker to follow the contest and scroll down to find some explanation on what the polls show.
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How has FBI probe affected Clinton's numbers?


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The bad news for Hillary Clinton is that the polls had already begun to tighten both nationally and in some key battleground states before FBI chief James Comey announced a new inquiry into her email use.

Enthusiasm for Mrs Clinton had slipped slightly in that poll, with the number of her supporters who said they were very enthusiastic about her down from 51% to 47%.

Polls do tend to tighten as election day approaches anyway, but at the moment it's unclear what, if any, effect news of the FBI inquiry will have.

In a CBS poll of 13 battleground states, 52% of voters said they expected the emails to contain "more of what we already know" and most of those who said they were less likely to vote for Mrs Clinton were Republicans.

How have scandals affected Trump's numbers?



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AFP
Donald Trump has been hit by several scandals since his campaign began. The most notable was the release on 7 October of a video in which he can be heard boasting about sexually assaulting women. He said his comments were "just words" and denied ever having groped a woman - but several have since come forward alleging just that.

This would have been enough to end the campaigns (and political lives) of many candidates, but Mr Trump has survived. Indeed, one CNN poll released on 24 October put him on 45% - exactly the same figure he was on in the previous CNN poll released on 3 October. Both polls had Mrs Clinton leading on 51%.

Mr Trump's ability to continuously poll around 40% nationally while rarely going above 45% has led many analysts to describe his support as having a high floor but a low ceiling. Mr Trump got more primary votes than any Republican in history but the polls show he has struggled to attract voters from outside his large and loyal base.

Should we trust the poll?
As election day approaches, Donald Trump is being increasingly outspoken about the polls, describing those that show him behind as "dirty" and accusing polling companies of "tremendous dishonesty".
But Mr Trump hasn't provided any evidence to back up his claims and there is nothing to suggest that any national poll has been intentionally skewed to favour one candidate over the other.
And despite his rhetoric, Mr Trump's campaign team seem to believe the numbers. "Nate Silver's results have been similar to ours," digital director Brad Parscale told Bloomberg, referring to the polling analyst at FiveThirtyEight, which has continually shown the Republican candidate trailing Hillary Clinton.

Polling isn't easy and the companies carrying them out have to overcome a number of challenges in the process - but research shows they are more accurate the closer we get to election day.
   How important are national poll?

It's a tough task to gauge the mood of a nation that is home to more than 300 million people but that doesn't stop the pollsters from trying.

National polls tend to have a sample size of about 1,000 people or more and can track movement and general opinion pretty well.
But the US election is won and lost in swing states and decided by the electoral college system.

This means that polls in states where either candidate could win (Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, to name just a few) play an integral role in election projections.
Who is ahead in the battleground states?

We've identified 13 states that can be considered battlegrounds in this election.
The graph above shows them and which way they're likely to vote based on data collected by polling resource website 

Source: BBC News

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